Fast Facts on Veterans Running for Congress

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At the beginning of the term in 1969 (91st Congress):

  • Senate: 69
  • House: 320

    • At the beginning of the current term (115th Congress):

  • Senate: 21
  • House: 82

    • As of July 2, 2018:

  • Senate: 19
  • House: 79

    • Our initial count of all individuals who had launched exploratory committees or raised money revealed that over 300 non-incumbent veterans were running for the House of Representatives. However - [INSERT EXPLANATION OF "Competitive Vets"]

    Number of veteran “contenders” in “winnable” races:

  • February 2016 – 18 (10 Dems, 8 GOP)
  • February 2018 – 47 (28 Dems, 19 GOP)
    • “Winnable” races defined as either:
  • Districts Cook’s Political Report defines as competitive, or
  • Districts where an incumbent is not running for reelection
    • “Contenders” defined as candidates who:
  • Had raised at least $100,000 by the end of 2017, and
  • Are not incumbents
    • Caveats:
  • Many more “winnable” races in 2018
  • In 2016, several credible candidates announced after February.

    • Exponential growth (literally) in women vets in Congress

    2011: (1) Rep. Sandy Adams

    2013: (2) Rep. Tammy Duckworth & Rep. Tulsi Gabbard

    2015:

  • (1) Senator – Joni Ernst
  • (3) Reps – Martha McSally, Duckworth, Gabbard

    • 2017:

  • (2) Senators – Joni Ernst, Tammy Duckworth
  • (2) Reps – Martha McSally, Tulsi Gabbard

    • Note: Before 2012, only 3 women vets had ever been elected to Congress

    According to a 2014 Pew Research poll, military service was the most positive trait a presidential candidate could have. However...

    2012 was the first presidential election since 1932 in which neither party’s nominee had served (2016 was the second)

    In 2016, 4 of the 23 declared presidential candidates served in the military (spoiler alert – they lost)

  • Jim Webb
  • Rick Perry
  • Jim Gilmore
  • Lindsey Graham

    • Pew Survey

    Democractic veteran challengers face worse odds than non-vet nominees

    2016 Median Partisan Voter Index of Dem challengers:

  • Veterans: R+10
  • Non-Vets: R+7

    • 2014 Median Partisan Voter Index of Dem challengers:

  • Veterans: R+12
  • Non-Vets: R+8

    • However, there is no significant difference for non-incumbent GOP nominees.

    Possible explanations:

  • Dem vets “poach leadership votes” from GOP
  • Sacrificial lambs
  • Willingness to run in long-shot races

    • ANSWER